Insight Turkey
Insight Turkey
Challenging ideas
On Turkish politics and International affairs

Author

Çise Karadeniz

İstanbul University
Çise Karadeniz
Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare
July 25, 2025
Once based on the bilateral symmetry of the Cold War, the logic of deterrence now faces layered ambiguity, cognitive manipulation, and pervasive uncertainty as the international system transforms into a multipolar and multi-domain order with overlapping spheres of technological, strategic, and normative contestation. The fundamental tenets of nuclear deterrence are under pressure in accordance with this new reality, in which cyber and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are speeding up, improving the accuracy, and expanding the scope of conflict.

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