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From Dictatorship to Transition: Syria’s Future in a Changing Middle East

On December 8, 2024 the nearly 60-year-long Baathist dictatorship in Syria, led by the Assad regime, came to an end following a 12-day military operation. As the country undergoes a transformative period where the state system is being rebuilt from the ground up, the post-revolution era has drawn significant attention from regional and international actors. At the forefront of this transition, revolutionary leader and head of the transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, faces numerous economic, security, and socio-political challenges. This commentary aims to provide a perspective on Syria's future by exploring both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Additionally, it examines the country's regional and global significance, focusing on the obstacles ahead, including sanctions. Furthermore, it analyzes Türkiye's role as a key stakeholder in the Syrian crisis, evaluating its national security concerns, economic interests, and political influence from a socio-political standpoint.

From Dictatorship to Transition Syria s Future in a Changing
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

 

At the Doha Forum on December 7, 2024, I watched as the official delegations from Türkiye, Arab nations, Iran, and Russia moved from one meeting to another. Meanwhile, on the frontlines, the Syrian opposition forces had already advanced into Aleppo, then Hama, and finally Homs: a critical turning point. However, few believed they would reach Damascus. Then, the following day, it was announced that Bashar al-Assad and his inner circle had fled the country. That morning, I received the news that after 13 years of immense struggle and heavy sacrifices, the Assad regime had fallen. Thus, the Syrian revolution had concluded: unexpectedly, at its bleakest and most stagnant phase with significantly less bloodshed than predicted.

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