Gökhan Çınkara

Türkiye established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, with Ankara’s recognition of the Jewish state. During the Cold War era, the relations were shaped by geopolitical and security concerns such as Soviet expansionism. Over the years, both countries opted for a pragmatic rapprochement in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Gulf Arab states in a significant realignment in regional dynamics. For Türkiye, it was a calculated decision against regional isolation and evolving dynamics. Operation al-Aqsa Flood and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza turned out to be another key moment that caused significant social sensitivity to Türkiye’s ties to Tel Aviv. This article examines the evolution of Türkiye-Israel ties through three critical events: the Abraham Accords, Turkish foreign policy’s post-Arab Spring reorientation, and social reactions to Israel’s genocide in Gaza. It also analyzes the gradual transformation of Türkiye-Israel ties from being mainly shaped by political elites to being increasingly influenced by social pressures and sensitivities. Its trajectory now depends on a complex web of structural, geopolitical factors, and domestic public opinion, and suggests a potential foreign policy recalibration for Türkiye.

The Abraham Accords have presented themselves as one of the most significant geopolitical developments in the Middle East in this decade. They represent a trend in which increasingly, Arab states are seeking their own geopolitical arrangements with the State of Israel. This commentary considers the Abraham Accords from the lenses of elite preferences and nationalism –arguing that the recent politicization of the Gulf-Arab elite constitutes the nexus of the Abraham Accords. We argue that the Abraham Accords were born from a desire of bolstering regime security, regional security and extend local transformations to the international domain. Our analysis opens the literature to a wider discussion on the political capital of Gulf elites, and how increasingly their decisions impact wider Middle Eastern geopolitics.