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The Future of Türkiye-NATO Relations in Light of the Strained Transatlantic Dialogue

This commentary aims to assess the impact of the changing approach of the U.S. under Trump's second administration on transatlantic relations, the future of NATO, its engagement in the war in Ukraine, and the prospects for further expansion toward the east. The paper also aims to shed light on how these developments may affect the future of Türkiye-NATO relations. While Türkiye remains a critical NATO member due to its strategic geography and military capabilities, domestic skepticism towards the Alliance has grown in response to unresolved disputes and perceived double standards. The commentary ultimately underscores that Türkiye’s future in NATO will depend on the Alliance’s ability to reconcile internal divisions, recalibrate its strategic vision, and balance Türkiye’s security concerns with broader transatlantic priorities.

The Future of Türkiye-NATO Relations in Light of the Strained
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate, was elected as the President of the United States (U.S.) for the second time. Less than a month after Trump was sworn in on January 20, 2025, Vice President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting in Brussels delivered speeches that provided critical insights into Washington’s shifting priorities regarding the Alliance, European security, and global stability. These early statements signal a potential recalibration of U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning NATO’s strategic orientation, the future of transatlantic defense commitments, and the evolving security architecture in Europe. It appears that transatlantic alliance relations are entering a critical and uncertain period under the second Trump Administration.

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